-Path 6: Look Across Time-

Most companies adapt incrementally and somewhat有點(diǎn) passively as events unfold呈現(xiàn).

Whether it’s the emergence of new technologies or major regulatory

changes, managers tend to focus on projecting the trend itself.

Three principles are critical to assessing trends across time.?

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To form the basis of a blue ocean strategy, these trends must be 【decisive】 to your

business, they must be 【irreversible】不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的, and they must have a clear trajectory.

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Many trends can be observed at any one time—for example, 【a discontinuity斷絕

in technology, the rise of a new lifestyle, or a change in regulatory調(diào)整的/控制的?

or social environments】.

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But usually only one or two will have a decisive impact on

any particular business.

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Having identified a trend of this nature, you can

then look across time and ask yourself what the market would look like if

the trend were taken to its logical conclusion.

For example, Apple observed the flood of 【illegal music file sharing】 that

began in the late 1990s.

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With the technology out there for anyone to digitally download music

free instead of paying $19 for an average CD at the time, the trend toward

digital music was clear.

What trends have a high probability of impacting your industry, are

irreversible, and are evolving in a clear trajectory? How will these trends

impact your industry? Given this, how can you open up unprecedented史無前例的

customer utility?

-Conceiving New Market Space-